Rafale : Chimera or Brahamastra ; The Dunning Kruger Effect

 Rafale : Chimera or Brahamastra ; The Dunning Kruger Effect

The Media blitz and the kerfuffle that ensued over the last four days about the flight of first five Rafael ac from France to India numbs not only the mind but the innards and sinews as well. There is no denying that Rafale is a potent strategic multi-role jet fighter that will bolster India’s defence and combat capabilities against its hostile neighbours, Pakistan and China. Yet our Media with its penchant for going overboard by its virtuous sciolism and ignorance was soon ensnared by the Dunning-Kruger effect - a cognitive bias in which people wrongly overestimate their knowledge or ability in a specific area.

The game changer, the Brahamastra, the ultimate Beast that has not only changed the balance of power in Asia but overnight elevated India to a superpower status, were part of the initial volley. With all the information culled from ‘’Sources”, known only to them and the Satan, the Media were ready with a worthy panel of experienced veterans to bombard the public and give them first-hand experience of the apocalyptic powers of the Hydra.   

 Even before the ac took off from France there was a bevy of senior retired veterans and experienced Fighter pilots lined up to read the fine print and cull out through virtue of their experience every big or small, known or unknown bit about the ac. Many panelists overwhelmed by their maiden exposure to the arc lights fell hook, line and sinker to the anchor’s machinations and conveniently mired in the miasma of professional verbosity, tying it up in Borromean knots that caused loss of simple, robust and irrefutable facts.  Much of the Unknown unknowns ( a la Donald  Rumsfeld ) touted about the lethality of the ultimate beast, capable of annihilating China and Pakistan together in one fell swoop were a revelation to Dassault, the manufacturer.

While China and Pakistan are trembling in fear and suffering sleepless nights, the Frenchies, who till two days back were reveling in their world beater technology and business acumen for selling a fourth gen plus ac, after a hard toil of two decades, were peeved at being short changed and conned by India for a pittance, Rs 59000/- crore for 36 ac. (compare to the present cost of a SU – 30, approx. Rs 550 cr). To their chagrin, Indian media and the domain experts had identified and extolled on virtues of Rafale hitherto unknown to Dassault.

The manufacturer, sudden victim of  the profundity paradox, which it find hard to reconcile, is dazed at the inadequate knowledge it had about the apocalyptic powers of the Beast it handled for 30 years, which Indian media unraveled in two nights. They now regret undervaluing the Lord of the skies, the saviour, the Brahamastra, the panacea to overcome all territorial disputes with China and Pakistan, and selling it at a pittance to India.

 President Macaron will do well to declare a two days national mourning in France to overcome the guilt of losing the goose that will lay golden eggs aplenty (the Scalp, the Meteor, 12 tons of ordnance et al) to ameliorate Indian border troubles  for next forty years. A sentiment duly endorsed by the Raksha Mantri, "If anyone should be worried about or critical about this new capability ... it should be those who want to threaten our territorial integrity,'' he wrote on Twitter.

 In the frenzy to get first past the post, the Media conveniently forgot that this is not the first induction of a front line fighter in the IAF. In 1953 that India acquired its First Fighter Jet, Ouragan also known as Toofani from the same company Dassault which now delivered the Rafale. Wonder if a common man heard about it. It was perhaps known to the MoD and Air Hq and all others associated with the ferry.  Similar was the case with the induction of Hunters, Canberras, MiGs, Jaguars, Mirages, MiG 29 and Su - 30 over the years. Why these inductions didn’t create such brouhaha? Perhaps the Media was far saner without the urge of “Breaking News” every 30 seconds and everybody in the then India minded his own business.

Now that the first lot is in, one hopes that Media  and veteran domain experts will give breathing  time to the boys to settle and prepare for further inductions and training. There is much to be done before attaining the requisite op status for op deployment and engagement. 

Wonder how many of us remember the bottle in the picture below. Well that's the mighty"Thunderbolt Rum"bottled by Mohan Meakins in 1982 to commemorate the Golden Jubilee of the IAF. Brar sir, the architect, curator n conductor of the magnificent harmony of nine ac in close formation,"Thunderbolts", that painted the Indian n foreign skies in various hues would certainly remember cos the Rum was named to celebrate the exploits of his team of magnificent men in their flying machines, Hunter ac.  I was in AFA then and all Offrs were allowed to purchase 12 bottles packed in two cartons of six each. Having extinguished all my desire n capacity to imbibe the elixir of joy n goodness over three and half years in Chabua, be it  Skipper, Bhutan, Golden Bell,Sea Pirate n of course the venerable Hercules I was least inclined to take  another plunge in the pool of Roger Uncle Mike coming my way. Whilst I was toiling with the dilemma of "to be or not to be" an uncanny thought xed my mind, why not take it n use it for the daughter's wedding, who was barely an  year old. Command decision was immediate "to be" n without informing the Homemaker, much to her chagrin, that multiplied with every posting, 12 bottles were procured to be aged and used may be 25 years later. Packing for postings, those years, especially collectors items, would inevitably result in debates(duels), far more charged up than what you see in Arnab shows. So one  carton (six bottles)became a casuality in 15th year of it's life at  a party n was walloped by all including the Barman. The second one lived another 26 years and was opened in 2008, to keep up the promise,at my daughter's wedding. One bottle survived the onslaught as by then many Scotch brands invaded our Canteens n were preferred over the rustic Rum.That one bottle  survived till yesterday when my brother in law, a hard core Rum aficionado visited us with two of his friends n relished the 36 years vintage"Thunderbolt Rum". The empty bottle was confined to the Trash Can for disposal n that's when my daughter, at whose motivation it was procured 36 years back, advised me to keep the empty, take pics n share with the cronies of yore for that tinge of nostalgia.

comments on Ajai Shukla's Article

Sorry, the comments did not publish in the last post . Here they are :-

While Shukla's patriotic fervor deserves appreciation, he somehow divorces himself from realism about the capability of our DPSUs, especially HAL. Almost 50 years in standing, it has 19 Production Units and 10 R&D Centres in 08 locations in India and employs perhaps the highest number of employees wrt any contemporary aircraft manufacturing facility on planet earth. And pray what have they given us in these fifty long years? Hyperboles of accomplishments, which truly were/are pain, pain and more pain with billions of dollars spent on foreign trips and collaborations. Some of their products that attained moderate success, courtesy the IAF, as no one else found them suitable, like HT-2,Kiran(HJT16) and HPT32,all Trainers were direct ripoffs from the Chipmunk, Jet Provost and Bulldog respectively. Among fighters the HF-24 designed by Dr Kurt Tank, a German, limped its way through in the IAF for want of a suitable engine.The others claimed to be manufactured by HAL like the MiG 21,Jaguar,Hawk and Su30 are either assembled or manufactured under license with over 75% imported components. The much touted IJT and the LCA have been in the making for 30 years and are yet to reach anywhere near oprationalisation. While the LCA was hurriedly given op clearance by Mr Antony in December 2013, just before CAS Browne retired, as per conservative estimates it will take at least five years before it is fully ops in the IAF. The prototype IJT that flew in the Air Show at Yelahanka in 2005 crashed in 2010 and nothing has come on line since then even in prototype form, when will it reach the IAF, if ever. 

So that brings me to the two most disingenuous and unviable suggestions made by Shukla. Rescind the Rafale deal to save one lakh crore and do the following: (a) improve the serviceability of Su-30s to 75% to get additional 95 ac online. Well said and highly wishful, but do remember all Su-30s are assembled at HAL leaving much to be desired in the finished product and costs the IAF close to Rs 500 crore besides being heavy on maintenance. In addition, 20% of the holdings go for MR&SOW. To achieve 75% serviceability of the remaining 80% , effectively 92% serviceability would need an uninterrupted continuous flow of product support, which is well nigh impossible because the IAF depends on HAL/Roseboron, who depends on foreign vendors, who never oblige.

 Anyway, being ex Army Shukla will not find it hard to corroborate, as the serviceability rate of a soldiers common weapon is dismal, forget about the heavy eqpt like TANKS, BMPs and Arty Guns etc. 
(b), mould the LCA Mk 2 on the lines of Gripen E and acquire the Aerospace Division of SaaB for the “change” left over after operationalising the LCA Mk 2 so as to promote aviation ecology and ancillary units in India. First of all SaaB is a billion $ co with worldwide presence whose annual turnover is ten times that of HAL.So I wonder if it can be bought off with the small change. And then the product Gripen E. Saab has signed a deal on 18 Dec 2013 with Brazil to supply 36 Gripen E for USD 4.5 billion. The first ac will reach Brazil in 2019 and the last in 2023. So there is no way we could persuade them to sell their holdings for the change till 2023. SaaB is yet to integrate the AESA Radar on the Gripen , a must for modern fighters.
 Wonder if the HAL has even thought of this Radar for LCA Mk 2. So could HAL replicate the Gripen Model on LCA Mk 2 is anybody’s take. Regrettably Shukla’s suggestions besides being incoherent smack of utmost ignorance on affairs Air Force, Aerospace and Air Power. If Mr Jaitely, in his wildest nightmares, were to ever implement these, he will do yeomen service to DRDO /HAL by filling their overflowing coffers with another one lakh crore – FOR NOTHING.

Ajai Shukla: Promoting 'swadeshi' in defence | Business Standard Opinion

Ajai Shukla: Promoting 'swadeshi' in defence | Business Standard Opinion

Slugfest India - 2014

A former British prime minister once said: “Public opinion is a compound of folly, weakness, prejudice, wrong feeling, right feeling, obstinacy — and newspaper paragraphs.”

While the politicians of all hues packed all kind of punches in an effort to capitalise this human abberation, a hardened Administrator and an astute campaigner from Gujarat, Narendra Modi, mesmerised the masses with his agenda of development and won the hearts and minds of young India.

As the nation celebrates and gloats over the unprecedented triumph of the NDA/BJP led by NaMo, I too feel vindicated and proud that my prediction was somewhat true. In my last blog posted on 11 May, I had indicated that they would get 308 to 318 seats. That they outwitted me by another 20 is indeed a miracle. One needn't be an astrologer or a psephologist to sense the mood of the nation. It's a piece of cake if you trust the fundamental decency, civility and good sense of the people.

However, the moot question is  what was this election all about?

As the common man understood, it was about development, anti corruption and good governance. But from the day the BJP anointed NaMo, the epitome of all three, as their PM candidate, the Congress and their poodles like Pawar, Mulayam, Lalu and Mayawati changed tack to the oft beaten track of pseudo secularism. All their efforts to demonise NaMo as a divisive figure with the fading brush of Godhra came a cropper.

In addition the Congress had a larger agenda, to promote an undeserving delinquent, Rahul Gandhi, bereft of any ideas or accomplishments, as the future PM of India, forgetting that what counts is the grey matter enriched by education and experience and not by inheritance or entitlement. In the bargain they ruined the unblemished credentials of a saint, Manmohan Singh, and turned the 185 year old Congress into an "anachronistic", "sclerotic" and "myopic" Party whose leaders and spokespersons rattled homilies and spewed venom against NaMo to defend the indefensible. Much that I am tempted to compare the two, NaMo and RaGa, the vacuity displayed by RaGa precludes a sane comparison.

Experience of the last five years proves that UPA 2 was nothing but a fractious and dysfunctional cocktail of corrupt egomaniacs that hung petty thieves (Babus) and retained the greater ones in public office. Their rule weakened the country’s capacity and resolves to cope with complex challenges, so much so that the country has almost disappeared as a serious player in the region and the world.

That’s where NaMo filled the chasm by sticking to his agenda of inclusive development, "sab ka vikas, sab ke sath". On the other hand, most unfortunately yet quite predictably, RaGas needle was stuck on alluding to dysfunctional Rights, the NREGA, MNREGA, RTI, Food Security etc conveniently forgetting that in civil society there is a network of implicit, unwritten rules, which sustain the entire social edifice, which, regrettably disintegrated under the UPA regime.

Well, the results are there for all to see and certainly dispel the myth and gloom spread by the opposition to demonise NaMo as the satan. Devlopment in Gujrat during the last 12 years of his rule certainly gives hope and reinforces Modi's claim of "Achhe din aane waale hain".Though I am not young but for the youth of India I quote these lines from Wordsworth at the start of the French Revolution: “Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, but to be young was very heaven”.

The Indian Carnival (elections) its Outcome and Post Script

Kudos to NaMo. The BJP under his able leadership and astute campaigning will win 308 to 318 seats.

However, the battle has just begun as they inherit a humongous responsibility to fulfill the aspirations of 1.2 billion Indians and deliver them from ignorance, corruption, oppression, poverty and exploitation. Misgovernance, malfeasance and pseudo secularism of various Congress led / supported governments has denuded the nation of all that was good, and destroyed the national fabric.

It is a recorded fact that all ills of a poor nation afflict India. But what is most alarming and ominous is that today Indians live in a moral vacuum without a national identity. Parochial loyalties and communal fanaticism, encouraged by self serving politicians, are the order of the day. We are all individuals and not the citizens of a cohesive society. 

Perhaps, India was waiting for a leader like NaMo, who will make it relearn the moral values and inculcate in the people a sense of responsibilities that fall on every citizen of a free society.
Therefore, to begin the recovery and reconstruction the first and foremost task for NaMo is to build a national identity, pride in nationhood - Indianness, amongst all citizens. Investment in human resources, not the self consuming MNREGA and NREGA schemes, but meaningful education to enable everyone to be a good responsible citizen to realize their true potential should be the first priority. Easily doable by inculcating a sense of pride in the "Teacher" and minor tinkering with the current curriculum in School and Colleges where every child is taught to tell the truth, to stand erect and never to stoop, to stand in line and never to push or pull, to share, to read with care, to give thanks, to hold hands, to smile and to respect their Teachers and senior citizens. A sure recipe to create bonhomie, pride, sense of belonging and self discipline, the essential prerequisites for growth.

The second critical issue, which has been conveniently ignored in the recent past, is population control. A must for India, the second most populous country with millions impoverished, condemned to living in penury and deprivation. Our numbers overwhelm every system and utility and the burgeoning population severely dilutes any economic growth. Though any such proposal will face serious objections from vested groups, it is an inescapable need of the hour. 

Regrettably, everything related to nation building especially noble human endeavour has taken a huge tumble in the last decade. We are well aware of the endless list of maladies that face us and need no repitition.

Many, especially the opposition who fail to see their own inadequacies see the rise of NaMo as ominous and Orwellian. My view, he has the ability to impart confidence, inspire and push people to do things they hadn't thought possible. I am sanguine that through his prudence, foresight, fortitude, temperance, sense of justice and high octane passion for perfection he will provide good governance to steer the nation to glory.

Contrasting Contradictions and Convictions

Last Saturday, watching  Rahul Gandhi’s interview on Headlines today at 2100 hrs and thereafter the QA session of Narinder Modi in Aap Ki Adalat at 2200 hrs I was reminded of the  Husband’s Night, the once an year party hosted by the ladies for all members of the Officers Mess of an Air Force Stn in the Indian Air Force. The interview with RaGa was like the much hyped “Punch,” a trumped up concoction of various soft drinks and juices, at times lined with some whisky/rum/brandy/vodka, served as a welcome drink. Since ladies generally refrain from drinking alcohol, the untested concoction despite the hype and a magnanimous helping turns out to be an avoidable insipid cocktail.

Once in the party, one is free to have a drink of his choice, in abundant measure to one’s satisfaction. And that’s what happened at 2200 hrs when I started watching the Aap ki Adalat with NaMo.It  was like what I enjoy the most, a “single malt”, nice, crisp and heady served with abundance of ice to cool the frayed nerves and sinews after the ”Punch”.

RaGa, although he acquitted himself far better than what he did with Arnab, seems to be wedded to the eighth deadly sin, a soch, a vichar, as he refers to the Congress’s ideology for now and forever. In his not so illustrious political career he seems to have mastered the art of dealing in ambiguity by paying pious lip service to various “Rights” that he repeatedly alludes to in all his interactions. He was heavy on rhetoric and light on analysis, long on emotions and short on reason. That there was no mention about numerable issues that plague the nation like, eradication of corruption, population control, unemployment, poverty alleviation, lack of infrastructure, healthcare, education etc, reflected the well scripted and duly edited questions that were put forth..

On the other hand, Modi who possess a different level of national consciousness, than any congressman, was able to connect well and handle every question and retort from the Anchor and the public with the flourish of a magician. It is his grasp over the essentials, culled from the experience of Gujarat, that enable him to express himself with clear conciseness and lucidity. He reflects a creative mind with high octane passion for perfection.

Comparing the two would be nothing short of sacrilege. I therefore leave it to the judgment of millions who watched both the programmes. But one thing is certain, Congress will have many years, after 16 May, to mull over their follies and misdeeds,the most outstanding being the culture of subservience and sycophancy that compelled them to project an unworthy delinquent against a statesman.